The campaign by Obama to make (or define) Romney into what Obama wants him to be is a act of desperation. The American people in general don't even pay attention until after the convention then after Labor Day and then about two weeks before the election. All the polling is really just a snapshot of that day or week. As a person who does pay attention I can attest to the ups and downs of the moods of the folks regarding their political feelings. One day up the next day down, that is just the way it is.
I read the polls and then read the underlying methods and the breakouts of the political affiliations of the respondents. I did a bit of research from the election season of 1980 and came across a New York Times article from this year which writes in part,
"All of this produced some incredibly volatile polling in 1980. Mr.
Carter led Mr. Reagan by a wide margin in polls in January and February
1980. The numbers drew closer together in the spring. By the summer, Mr.
Reagan had a clear lead, peaking around 25 points in polls conducted
immediately after the Republican convention in Detroit. Then, Mr. Carter
rebounded, with polls conducted in late October showing him behind Mr.
Reagan by only a point or two on average. Mr. Reagan considerably beat
his polls on Election Day, however, and won in a landslide."
HERE is the full article.
What I see happening is an attempt to suppress the Republican vote. Discourage them so they stay home. Since Obama has a crappy economic record and his policies on the domestic front have made things worse, he is unable to tout success (except for lying about the economy), so his strategy is attack Romney relentless. The latest attacks are of course so over the top (causing the death of a woman) that even his ardent lamestream media supporters have to spit before they report it (and they do, over and over). But that is the reason Obama and his minions use such outrageous ads. They know the "seriousness" of the allegation is where the rubber meets the road (yet Obama is killing real people with drones, just like a king!). They know the lamestreams will care less about the veracity of the lie and are simply looking for the Romney reaction to the lie. Works every time since the lamestreams are voting for Obama (90%) and protecting their own legacy.
With the relentless attacks on Romney, the lamestreams then get some polling of the moment and lo and behold, the short term memory of the people polled reflects those momentary "feelings". The one major thing lacking though in all these polls is how many phone calls they made to finally get a response. And how did they get the cell number of a respondent (from the voter reg form?). Most of the polls are small samples anyway yet the lamestreams (even FOX lately as well) tout the results showing Obama up 7 or 9 points! I say to all you folks foaming at the mouth on the left, don't count those chickens yet.
Rasmussen polling and even the Gallup (Rasmussen has Romney up 2, and Gallup a tie today) tracking polls are the better at the snapshot in time polling results. But even those two polling agencies can't tell us the future of the results on November 6. Ronald Reagan was attacked as a nutball extremist on a daily basis and the press didn't like him either. The polls were up and down but in the end, the final poll taken by the American people determined who would be the President. It was Ronald Reagan in a landslide. Lightning will strike twice.
I think that your seven point estimate is a little low. It could be closer to ten.
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